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Saturday, 16 June

17:51

Expect China and Russia To Continue To Undermine Democracies "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Riga, Latvia: Bob Posners name is perfect for who he is: a mild, middle-aged British public servant, not given to grand statements or dramatic claims.

He comes across as the sort of chap whod say things like anything for a quiet life.

But suddenly its not that quiet.

Image result for putin and Xi, photos

Posner is the director of the UK Electoral Commissions finance and regulation section. His job is to make sure, using the principle of follow the money, that elections and referendums are run lawfully.

Usually this is just going over receipts and rapping the knuckles of anyone loose in their funding declarations.

By Nick Miller
Sydney Morning Herald

But now there are a significant number of major investigations and inquiries on our books, he says. Just last week they opened another new investigation into a major campaigner in the Brexit referendum.

It does seem different and it does seem a concern, he says.

I find myself talking to my counterparts in a number of other countries about their issues. I find myself talking to security services in the UK and elsewhere, in the US in particular.

That doesnt seem normal to me. That seems very different to when I started my job four years ago. Theres been a change of some sort.

When fake news meets marketing

Earlier this year British Prime Minister Theresa May said she was deeply concerned by Russias attempts to weaponise information.

The Kremlin is seeking to undermine the international rules-based system, she said.

...

10:11

From Bauple to Burpengary The Game & The Big Year "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Barking Owl - Sheepstation Creek

BirdLife Australia Sunshine Coast, our local birding group, has for some time been running a game on its Facebook page organised by its leader, Ken Cross. One objective is to encourage people to photograph as many species as possible in a calendar year in the Sunshine Coast region. The area extends north to Inskip Point and Bauple; south to Bribie Island; and west to Kilcoy, the Conondale Range, the Amamoor area and Muna Creek-Miva. An outlier to the south, Sheepstation Creek Conservation Reserve near Burpengary, is also included.




I thought it would be fun to join in for the 2018 game, and it's proved quite a challenge. A bit like a big jigsaw puzzle, with all the bits slowly falling into place. A few weeks ago, what I dubbed The Game morphed into a Big Year for me, so I'm keen to see how many species in the region I can photograph this year. As of today (16/4/2018) I'm up to 279, and while it might be nice to hit 300, another 21 is a tall order, especially since I'm away for much of the second half of the year. I've seen but not managed to photograph another 4 species (King Quail, Stubble Quail, Eastern Ground Parrot, White-throated Nightjar). I've seen a total of 344 species in the Sunshine Coast region since time immemorial.
...

08:00

The Weekend Quiz June 16-17, 2018 answers and discussion "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Here are the answers with discussion for this Weekends Quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you havent already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

Question 1:

An external surplus is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a nation that wishes to grow during a period of fiscal surpluses and private domestic deleveraging.

The answer is True.

This is a question about the relative magnitude of the sectoral balances the government fiscal balance, the external balance and the private domestic balance. The balances taken together always add to zero because they are derived as an accounting identity from the national accounts. The balances reflect the underlying economic behaviour in each sector which is interdependent given this is a macroeconomic system we are considering.

To refresh your memory the balances are derived as follows. The basic income-expenditure model in macroeconomics can be viewed in (at least) two ways: (a) from the perspective of the sources of spending; and (b) from the perspective of the uses of the income produced. Bringing these two perspectives (of the same thing) together generates the sectoral balances.

From the sources perspective we write:

(1) GDP = C + I + G + (X M)

which says that total national income (GDP) is the sum of total final consumption spending (C), total private investment (I), total government spending (G) and net exports (X M).

Expression (1) tells us that total income in the economy per period will be exactly equal to total spending from all sources of expenditure.

We also have to acknowledge that financial balances of the sectors are impacted by net government taxes (T) which includes all tax revenue minus total transfer and interest payments (the latter are not counted independently in the expenditure Expression (1)).

Further, as noted above the trade account is only one aspect of the financial flows between the domestic economy and the external sector. we have to include net external income flows (FNI).

Adding in the net external income flows (FNI) to Expression (2) for GDP we get the familiar gross national product or gross national income measure (GNP):

(2) GNP = C + I + G + (X M) + FNI

To render this approach....

04:49

Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

ANOTHER great post from SRSrocco..  this one should be of particular interest to Australians though, because we are in a more vulnerable region. and while Australia may look not too bad on those charts, its only because our relatively small population means we consume way less than most of the other nations of the Asia Pacific region

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Certain areas of the world are more vulnerable to economic and societal collapse.  While most analysts gauge the strength or weakness of an economy based on its outstanding debt or debt to GDP ratio, there is another factor that is a much better indicator.  To understand which areas and regions of the world that will suffer a larger degree of collapse than others, we need to look at their energy dynamics.

For example, while the United States is still the largest oil consumer on the planet, it is no longer the number one oil importer.  China surpassed the United States by importing a record 8.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2017.  This data came from the recently released BP 2018 Statistical Review.  Each year, BP publishes a report that lists each countries energy production and consumption figures.

BP also lists the total oil production and consumption for each area (regions and continents).  I took BPs figures and calculated the Net Oil Exports for each area.  As we can see, the Middle East has the highest amount of net oil exports with 22.3 million barrels per day in 2017:

The figures in the chart above are shown in thousand barrels per day.  Russia and CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) came in second with 10 mbd of net oil exports followed by Africa with 4 mbd and Central and South America with 388,000 barrels per day.  The areas with the negative figures are net oil importers.

The area in the world with the largest net oil imports was the Asia-Pacific region at 26.6 mbd followed by Europe with 11.4 mbd and North America (Canada, USA & Mexico) at 4.1 mbd.

Now, that we understand the energy dynamics shown in the chart above, the basic rule of thumb is that the areas in the world that are more vulnerable to collapse are those with the highest amount of net oil imports.  Of course, it is true t...

03:45

Mon Abri MkII update "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Its been busy here for the past month or so since we started coming out of the ground As I type, the masonry work is as good as finished, weather permitting will be so next Monday. So on a rainy weekend and I have to say weve been so lucky weather-wise Ive decided to update you all on the progress.

I started with 24 pallets of blocks, and it looks like well have almost three left over, even after the numerous broken ones found beneath the plastic wrap around the pallets. Beats me how everything is plastic wrapped now, even concrete blocks

Mark the Irish block layer has done a wonderful job.. he may be six years younger than me, but us old farts can sure work when the pressures on!

Having fitted the electrics on top of the first course, it occurred to me that dropping

IMG_20180513_151311

Marking blocks for cutting

concrete from a great height onto the plastic conduit spanning almost 400mm between the block webs might not be a good idea, so I filled the bottom course by hand to support all that hard work. Didnt want to...

03:07

nankeen kestrel, masked lapwing at Etna Creek Road, north of Rockhampton reported by Andrew McDougall on 09-06-2018 "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

At least 22 nankeen kestrels In approximately 6 hectares hovering and striking. In the same paddock at least 60 masked lapwings in 3 loose groups. Recorded here due to unusually high numbers.

01:53

MACKAY Mackay magistrate court "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

MACKAY June 16, 2018 at 12:12AM ,

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June 16, 2018 at 12:12AM ,

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00:28

Glacial improvement "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Tightening, slowly

I took a look here at the employment growth figures during the week, which broadly showed that the unemployment rate in Australia is back down to where it was in 2013. 

The number of unemployed persons dropped sharply in the month of May, down by 26,800 to 714,600, taking the unemployment rate down from 5.6 per cent to 5.4 per cent. 

So that's the good news. 

The state making the most substantial inroads lately has been Victoria, with the number of unemployed persons down to 174,400 from 208,500 a year earlier.

Very good news!

The unemployment rate in Victoria has declined accordingly to 5.1 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent a year ago.

So that's getting quite close to the 4.9 per cent of New South Wales. 

Like Sydney before it, Melbourne is enjoying the fruits of its construction boom.

Some progress, then, but overall there are still more than 700,000 out of work, and there remains plenty of slack in the labour force nationally. 

A look at the trend chart for unemployed persons underscores this point.

In October 2014 the two most populous states had a combined 442,900 unemployed persons, a figure that's since fallen by about 60,000 or 14 per cent. 

00:00

June 16 #OnThisDay in #Australian #History "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

1806 - Some convicts decided on a change of scenery so they lifted the brig 'Venus' from Port Dalrymple (in Tassie) and sailed off into the sunset and over the ditch to NZ.

1801 - Lieut William Paterson founded a settlement on the Hunter River. Alas! He forgot the first rule in real estate - location, location, location, and thus it was kicked to the kerb (abandoned to you fancy-pants readers) in 1802.

1806 - Sydney's very first girl's school was opened by Mrs Williams while many parents breathed a sigh of relief and stopped eyeing off the latest line of chastity belts.
An early St Trinian's....?

1807 - The first Russian ship in Australian waters, the trading sloop Neva, 370 tons, popped into Sydney to share a bottle of voddy with the colonials. While anchored in Neutral Bay, Lieutenant Leonid Hagemeister collected Aboriginal weapons, which were sent to St. Petersburg

1828 - John Curtis was hanged at Sydney for the theft of a cow from the herd of William Wentworth, at Bringelly.

1828 - James (or Joseph) Johnson (also called Philip Macauley, Phillip Gawley) was hanged at Sydney for highway robbery and assault of George Tills outside Liverpool.

1857 - Beginning the looong tradition of pollies wasting time & money by "looking into it" Member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, Sir Charles Gavan Duffy, headed a select committee established to inquire into federation of the Australia's colonies.

1869 Explorer Charles Sturt dropped off the perch.

1879 - Proving that scratching about in the dirt isn't just a fun hobby prospectors John Atherton and James Robson tripped over tin deposits on the tablelands inland from Cairns, Queensland.

1884 - The Bendigo Railway Line (Vic) was opened from the glorious Castlemaine Station (Maldon Junction) to equally delicious Maldon Station.

1885 - Not to be outdone by Benders transport improvements, Ballarat saw the launch of the Golden City steamer on Lake Wendouree.

1887 - Queen's College at Uni of Melbourne (named for the Jubilee of Queen Vicky's reign), was founded by the Reverend William Quick (Founders Day) on the piece of land granted by the Victorian Government to the Methodist Church.

1888 - Melbourne Footy Club were trying to spread the love of the game in Banana Bender country where they played a match against QLD at the Exhibition Ground.
Melbourne 6.16 defeated Queensland 3.5 (Attendance: 5,000)

1903 - The Lake Condah Mission Aboriginals formed an unbeatable football team in 1902, the Darlot Creek Wanderers which the Hamilton Spectator reported on this day having won by 52 points against Condah.

1906 The town of Roma, Queensland became the first town in Australia to be lit and po...

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Friday, 15 June

13:44

UPDATED LOCATION FOR 18 JUNE MEETING "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Note that this Monday 18 June 2018, we will be meeting in room 013.01.003, Emily McPherson building The big white building on the southwest corner of Russell and Victoria. Enter via Franklin St (ie. the Victoria St side). All are welcome!

12:31

Australian Army 'Foxtrot' Chinook A15-303 and MRH-90 A40-041 Call into Rockhampton Airport as "Chainsaw" "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

On Thursday 14 June, a nice surprise arrival into Rockhampton Airport as a pair of Australian Army helicopters called in from the Shoalwater Bay Training Area (SWBTA).  They were heard to fly in formation under the callsign "Chainsaw". 




The helicopters were identified as Australian Army Boeing CH-47F 'Foxtrot' Chinook A15-303 and Australian Army NH Industries MRH-90 Multi-Role Helicopter A40-041.


...

12:16

Many Photos as Australian Army Boeing CH-47F 'Foxtrot' Chinook Helicopter A15-306 Completes Sling-Lift from Bowen Airport "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

As we have reported below, elements of the Australian Army and the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) have been completing training drills around Bowen, including amphibious landings on the nearby Bowen beachfront, all as a part of the RAN's Exercise Sea Explorer 2018.  The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) Canberra-class landing helicopter dock (LHD) ship aptly named HMAS Canberra (III) remains in waters off Bowen and is the centre-piece of the Exercise.

And on Wednesday 6 June, local plane spotter James K was back at Bowen Airport as Australian Army Boeing CH-47F 'Foxtrot' Chinook helicopter A15-306 completed was appeared to be a sling-load of supplies out to HMAS Canberra.




11:28

Rebel without good cause for $600,000 "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

SOCIAL media has been such a game changer that NSW is to have a look at how the 2005 uniform defamation law is coping. But some things remain constant: humans like to be liked, like to be respected and like to be trusted. It is in our evolved genes. So we should be careful.

Whether the respect or trust is deserved is another matter. And deserved or not, humans will fight for it. Indeed, men (they were nearly all men) if insulted used to duel for honour with swords and pistols injuring or killing themselves so often that law-makers and policy-makers encouraged and then insisted that honour be settled in the courts and not the dueling field.

As the press became more popular, publication became more widespread, so the damages for loss of reputation became higher. The law became more complicated and costs went up.

Newspapers and later broadcasters staked their reputations on reliability and veracity. It meant, of course, that anyone defamed by them could argue thay had suffered great reputational loss because the publishers had urged everyone to rely on them.

As Tom Bathurst said in the defamtion action this week against broadcaster Alan Jones the damages had to be enough to convince Mr Joness devoted followers, who write to him and hang on every word that he says, to convince them that his charges are baseless.

Before the internet, Newspapers and broadcasters usually took great care to avoid defamation actions, and they still do. Editors and sub-editors were trained to spot defamation dangers.

Newspapers and broadcasters had a monopoly on the widespread publication of news and information. You needed an expensive press or broadcast licence to be in the game.

Then came the internet. It did not take much to publish material. Then came Google and it took even less. Then came social media and suddenly anyone could be a publisher to a lot of people at virtually no cost. They could also be republishers of other peoples material.

The new publishers arose around the time the 2005 defamation law was taking shape.

These new publishers have little or no understanding of defamation law. They know nothing of the old legal adage: you publish at your peril.

Rather, in Australia, they were imbued with inapplicable US concepts of freedom of speech.

The new...

10:22

MEDIA RELEASE 15/06 | THREAT LEVEL RAISES ON NAURU AFTER ASLUM SEEKER DEATH "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Canstruct, the Nauru detention management company, has declared a threat level 3 (probable) at the RPC 1 and 3 in the aftermath of todays suicide. RPC 1 is the detention administrative centre and also houses the IHMS clinic, where the brother and the mother of the deceased Iranian man, Farhad (not his real name) were(...)

10:16

MEDIA RELEASE 15/06 | ANOTHER ASYLUM SEEKER DIES ON NAURU "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Tragic news from Nauru, that a 26 year-old Iranian asylum seekers has been found dead, believed to have suicide, this morning. He was found dead in his familys tent in the RPC 3 around 9.00am, Sydney time. His death comes only three weeks since a Rohingya refugee died on Manus Island. It brings the tragic(...)

09:23

Barkandji People Proposed IULA "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Barkandji People Proposed ILUA

Proposed ILUA area roughly centred on Menindee and includes Broken Hill, Wilcannia, Ivanhoe and Mildura.

The apical ancestors are listed as follows
Manfred Mary / Mary Johnson / Mary Brodie
Manfred Tommy
Louisa Brown
Cuthero Jack Brown
Susan Webster also known as Annie Webster
Bill Webster
Harry Whyman
Kate Whyman
Louisa McLean
Alec McLean
Nganya
Sarah Cabbage
Harry Mitchell
Daniel McGregor
Lucy Benson
Jack Doctor Benson
Crancey
Jack Tyler
Taylor Matjulum Gibson
Tottie Gibson
Kutyi
Cate Newton / Maggie Tyler
Albert Bates
Fanny Bates
Yancannia Kitty
Judy Quayle
Nancy Watts
Topsie Crowe
Alec Bridge
Olive Barton
Margaret Payne
Kitty Knight
Jacky Knight
Matilda Murray
Paddy Black
Hero Black
Tall Boy Keegan
Kitty Keegan
Fanny Buugali Williams

Appeared in the Koori Mail of June 13, 2018

Some items of interest are

Aboriginal Cultural Heritage of the Menindee Lakes Area
Part 1 Aboriginal Ties to the Land
Sarah Martin 2001

Corner Talk - An Annales Influernced Narrative from the Corner Country of NSW
Sarah Martin 2004

Humpy, House and Tin Shed
Aboriginal Settlement History on the Darling River
Paul Memmott, Published I B Fell Research Centre, University of Sydney, 1991

Menindee Mission Station 1933 1949 and Carowra Tank Aboriginal School
Beverley and Don Elphick 2000

The Tin Camp - A Study of Contemporary Aboriginal Architecture in North Western NSW
Stephanie Diana Smith
Master of Architecture Thesis, University of Queensland, 1996

Mutawintji
Aboriginal Cultural Association with Mutawintji National Park
Dr Jeremy Beckett, Dr Luise Hercus, Dr Sarah Martin
edited by Claire Colyer 2008

09:15

Leaked Microsoft Documents Describe Plans for Surface Tablets, Xbox, "Andromeda", and HoloLens "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Leaked documents have provided details about Microsoft's upcoming Surface tablets, the next-generation Xbox, a two-screen handheld device, and the next HoloLens:

Andromeda, Microsoft's mythical pocketable, two-screen, hand-held device that's supposed to carve out a whole new market for itself, is due for release in 2018. The documents also say that, after Andromeda, Microsoft OEMs will produce their own comparable products, just as they've done with Surface Pro.

The big question for Andromeda is the same as it has always been: why? To define a new hardware form factor, as appears to be the intent, its design needs to be particularly suitable for something. Surface Pro, for example, has appealed particularly to groups such as students (taking notes with OneNote) and artists, thanks to its form factor and multimodal input support. To succeed, Andromeda needs to offer similar appealit needs to enable something that's widely useful and ill-suited to existing hardware. But presently, there are few ideas of just what that role might be.


Original Submission

Read more of this story at SoylentNews.

08:47

MACKAY Drug arrests Mackay District "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

MACKAY June 15, 2018 at 11:30AM ,

Drug arrests Mackay District

June 15, 2018 at 11:30AM ,

A 29-year-old Dysart woman has been issued with a Notice to Appear in the Mackay Magistrates Court on 12 July 2018 for Possessing Drug Utensils.

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08:38

Australia - Liverpool Plains Shire Council will investigate adding fluoride to its regional water supply "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

iverpool Plains Shire Council (LPSC) will consider fluoridation of the local water supply.
Council has resolved to begin an investigation process, which will involve extensive community consultation. 
It comes after NSW Health contacted the council urging it to consider fluoridation of the regional water supply and offering its support to do so, including the provision of design consultants for fluoride systems and a 100 per cent capital cost subsidy. .............

08:11

Coriander Spiritual Meaning "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Coriander spiritual meaning is steeped in history and as old as magic itself. Many claim it has supernatural powers to cure the ill and revive the exhausted

The post Coriander Spiritual Meaning appeared first on Thrive On News Spiritual Magazine.

08:00

The Weekend Quiz June 16-17, 2018 "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Welcome to The Weekend Quiz. The quiz tests whether you have been paying attention or not to the blogs I post. See how you go with the following questions. Your results are only known to you and no records are retained.

1. An external surplus is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a nation that wishes to grow during a period of fiscal surpluses and private domestic deleveraging.



2. When a nation's fiscal deficit is declining it tells us that the government has fallen into an austerity mindset.



3. The only way a nation can reduce its public debt ratio (short of defaulting) is for the government to start running primary fiscal surpluses (that is, when spending net of interest payments is less than taxation revenue).




...

07:27

Palaszczuk Government one step closer to protecting human rights in Queensland law "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

The Queensland Governments budget, which was handed down this week, features $2.3 million of funding over four years for the states Anti-Discrimination Commission to help it administer the Human Rights Act that the Government will soon be introducing.

Lee Carnie, a Lawyer at the Human Rights Law Centre, said it was great to see the Queensland Government moving to protect peoples civil and political rights in the law.

"A Human Rights Act will better protect Queenslanders human rights in law. It will require the government to think about peoples rights when making laws and policies and delivering services like housing, aged care and disability services. It will give people a way to hold the government to account if it crosses the line and breaches rights. It will make Queensland a better and fairer state," Lee Carnie said.

The Palaszczuk Government committed in 2016 to introduce a Human Rights Act and this morning Deputy Premier Jackie Trad confirmed the legislation will be unveiled in the coming months.

It is understood the legislation will be modelled on Victorias Charter of Human Rights. Lee Carnie said Queensland should learn from the Victorian experience and ensure that people have a simple and accessible mechanism to enforce their rights.

"To be effective, its vital that a Queensland Human Rights Act enables people to take action when their rights are being violated. Its good to have your human rights articulated, but what people actually need is an ability to enforce them," said Lee Carnie.

Queensland will become the third Australian jurisdiction to protect human rights in law - the Australian Capital Territory adopted its Human Rights Act in 2004 and Victoria adopted its Charter of Human Rights in 2006.

Lee Carnie said it was time to also properly protect human rights at a national level.

"Given the importance of 'the fair go' in our culture, its really surprising that Australia is the only western democracy that doesnt have a charter or bill of rights. An Australian Charter of Human Rights will better protect our fundamental values in our laws. It will help to ensure that everyone gets a fair go," said Lee Carnie.

You can support the national campaign for an Australian Charter of Human Rights by donating to the Human Rights Law Centre here.

For interviews or further information please call:

Tom Clarke, Director of Campaigns, Human Rights Law Centre, 0422 545 763

07:16

Dee Madigan referred to Qld Ethics Committee over Jarrod Bleijie ridicule @qldaah #qldpol "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

NSW resident and non member of the Queensland parliament, Dee Madigan, has been referred to the states ethics committee for ridiculing Jarrod Bleijie MP. Author and Gruen panelist, Dee Madigan, has been referred to Queenslands parliamentary ethics committee for ridiculing in a Tweet the Liberal National Party (LNP) member for the state seat of Kawana, Jarrod Bleijie. Last month, this blogger made a Graphics Interchange Format (GIF) of a scene in the Queensland Parliament in which Mr Bleijie tore up papers and threw them on the floor during debate on changes to the states vegetative management act. Mr Bleijie had been unhappy that the hours of parliament had been extended to []

Author information

David Marler

David Marler

Queensland reporter at No Fibs

David is a full time carer for his son and in quiet times contributes to NoFibs. More at: http://nofibs.com.au/meeting-david-marler-nofibs-twitter-activist-by-griffithelects

06:42

Pushing Huawei Out: Australia, the Solomon Islands and the Internet "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Be wary of the Chinese technological behemoth, goes the current cry from many circles in Australias parliament.  Cybersecurity issues are at stake, and the eyes of Beijing are getting beadier by the day.

The seedy involvement of Australia in the Solomon Islands, ostensibly to block the influence of a Chinese companys investment venture, is simply testament to the old issues surrounding empire: If your interests are threatened, you are bound to flex some muscle, snort a bit, and, provided its not too costly, get your way.  Not that Canberras muscle is necessarily taut or formidable in any way.

The inspiration behind Canberras intervention was an initial contract between Huawei and the Solomon Islands involving the Chinese giant in a major role building the high-speed telecommunications cable between Sydney and Honiara. Even more disconcerting might be the prospects that it would work, supplying a cable that would enable the Chinese to peer into the Australias own fallible network.

What made this particular flexing odd was the spectacle of an Australian prime minister congratulating himself in securing tax payer funding for the building of a 4,000 kilometre internet cable even as the domestic National Broadband Network stutters and groans.  Another juicy point is that Huawei was banned from applying for tendering for the NBN in 2012.

As the worlds second largest maker of telecommunications equipment was told, there is no role for Huawei in Australias NBN. The then Attorney-General Nicola Roxon explained that the move was consistent with the governments practice for ensuring the security and resilience of Australias critical infrastructure more broadly.  Better an incompetent local provider of appropriate values than a reliable foreign entity.

The move against Huawei has largely centered on fears voiced by the intelligence community in various states that Beijing might be getting a number up on their competitors.  In February this year, the FBI Director Chris Wray expressed the US governments concern about the risks of allowing any company or entity that is beholden to foreign governments that dont share our values to gain positions of power inside our telecommunications networks.  Doing so would enable them to maliciously modify or steal information and provide the capacity to conduct undetected espionage.

Such comments tend to suggest envy; the US intelligence community chiefs know all too we...

06:14

Police sell firearms on black-market "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Victoria is in a midst of a crime epidemic, a crime epidemic committed by Victoria Police.

The organisation is home to many criminal offences (more so than the general population - per capita) where the focus of this post is on the selling of confiscated or handed in firearms to Victoria Police.

The real figures are much higher, where only this information, as reported by the Fairfax media, is allowed to be in the public domain: 


Do you know why there is no government policy to weed out criminals in Australia's police force?
 
Normal 0 false false false EN-AU X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 ...

06:02

The Biggest Event of Your Investing Lifetime "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

The good news in the mining sector just keeps rolling in

Today, management at BHP Billiton Ltd [ASX:BHP] announced that theyve given the go-ahead to the $4.5 billion South Flank iron ore mine in Western Australia.

Thats a fair chunk of capital spending in anyones book.

Its also going to lead to 2,500 construction jobs and 600 operational roles.

The project will produce for 25 years, replacing an ageing mine thats come to the end of its economic life.

One wonders what the world will look like when South Flank shuts down in 2043. You would think its safe to assume theres going to be a lot more middle-class Chinese citizens.

That number could be as large as 500 million by 2026, according to fund manager Charlie Aitken. The Australian reported today on the presentation he gave this week to the Livewire Live conference in Sydney.

Hes quoted as saying that the rise of Asias middle class is the biggest opportunity in our investing lifetime.

I agree wholeheartedly.

The only mystery is why so many people think the world is going to collapse at the same time that all this is playing out

Aitken mentioned something Ive often wondered myselfand thats just how high meat and dairy prices are going to go as the Chinese adopt a more Western diet.

If you think lamb is expensive now, just wait until we Australians are competing with this monstrous Chinese market.

Maybe become a farmer while you can. This development certainly has the potential to send agricultural land values soaring.

But the easier play on China for investors could be to hold its giant tech firms like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd [NYSE:BABA] and Tencent Holdings Ltd [HK:0700]. This is where technology and population growth collide, according to Aitken.

Adjacent to this huge Chinese expansion is oil demand. China is not only consuming large amounts of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, its also building up a huge petrochemical industry. This provides the feedstock for plastics, fertilisers and beauty products.

As you know, demand for oil goes up alongside a rising consumer base.

Its also partly why the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand for crude oil to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2019. Thats on par with this year.

The signs are good.

There was actually a surprise this week when it became apparent that US crude stockpiles fell.

An analyst cited in the Wall Street Journal put it down to soaring US oil demand (I keep emphasising that its a hot economy in the US...

04:26

Graham Readfern exposes the climate denial group The Australian Environment Foundation "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Inside the AEF, the climate denial group hosting Tony Abbott as guest speaker, Guardian 15 June 18 

The Australian Environment Foundation has secured a former prime minister to speak. But what does it actually do?

Securing a former prime minister to speak at your organisation is no doubt a coup for many groups.

Singapores Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy recently got Kevin Rudd. Australias Nelson Mandela Day committee has snaffled Julia Gillard for their next annual lecture.

What about our most recent former PM, Tony Abbott?

Next month, Abbott will deliver the 2018 Bob Carter Commemorative Lecture to the Australian Environment Foundation (AEF), where...

04:20

Event 27 June The Need for Leadership to Address White Supremacy in the NGO Sector "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

  Pro Bono Australia  Luke Michael, 14 June 18 

Charities and not for profits need to show leadership to address the issue of white supremacy in the NGO sector, a prominent Aboriginal writer and activist believes.

Nayuka Gorrie is a Kurnai/Gunai, Gunditjmara, Wiradjuri and Yorta Yorta writer and activist who spoke on a panel at the Victorian Council of Social Service (VCOSS) 2018 Summit on Wednesday.

She was joined by Victorian ombudsman Deborah Glass OAM, Will Stracke from the Victorian Trades Hall Council, Reason Party leader Fiona Patten, and Centre for Social Impact CEO Kristy Muir.

The panel discussed the shifting nature of leadership and the role of citizens to shape their own prosperous and inclusive society.

One of the topics discussed was the need for greater diversity in leadership, particularly around race and gender.

Stracke admitted during the panel discussion that leadership in the trade union movement was too white.

One of our values that we say is diversity is our strength and solidarity is our power, Stracke said.

And thats about the diversity of our movement and our movement is very diverse but I think we as a union movement [still] need more voices.

Weve very white in terms of our leadership and we need to get better at that.

Leadership needs to be much more representative of...

04:13

Construction underway at Australias largest, possibly cheapest wind farm RenewEconomy "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Construction underway at Goldwinds 530MW Stockyard Hill Wind Farm in Victoria, one of Australias biggest and cheapest wind projects.

via Construction underway at Australias largest, possibly cheapest wind farm RenewEconomy

04:06

Job Opening: Seniors Project Officer, Elder Abuse Prevention in CALD Communities Project "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

This position is to implement the state-wide initiative funded by the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services to provide culturally diverse seniors with information on elder abuse and access to social participation grants. This position will continue the work of a three-year project, funded from 2015-18.

The project objective is to develop and implement a state-wide community awareness raising program on Elder Abuse Prevention in partnership with Senior Rights Victoria to meet the needs of clients from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds.

Employment type: 0.6 EFT (3 days per week) 45.6 per fortnight

View the position description here 

Applications close 5pm, 2 July 2018

03:54

People Spot Wild Kangaroo In Ocean Then Realize She's In Trouble "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

A wild kangaroo hopping along the coast of Queensland, Australia, got a surprise. 

The kangaroo had been exploring just behind a seawall in the town of Sandgate on Thursday morning when suddenly there was less ground to hop on and less, and still less. 

The tide was rising and soon the little kangaroo was knee-deep in water. And then she was neck-deep. 

Credit: Queensland Fire & Emergency

Thankfully, people spotted her. She was peeking over the wall, looking totally at a loss. 

"What's that Skippy?" Queensland Fire and Emergency Services wrote on Twitter. "The tides on the up and youre stuck behind Sandgates seawall, needing our crews to save the day?"

A couple firefighters teamed up with a policeman to help hoist the kangaroo up out of the water by her arms. 

Credit: Queensland Fire & Emergency

Rescuers were sure to snap a few photos of their wild citizen in need as she hung out beside them, drying off on dry land. 

Credit: Queensland Fire & Emergency

This isn't the first time Australians have jumped at the chance to save their unique wildlife from trouble. In April, another kangaroo stuck in mud got a nice helping hand from a couple of teenagers who happened to be bicycling by.

Its a pretty patriotic thing to do,"  one of the teenagers ...

03:49

Campus KKK and Nazis: You Do Call Wagga Wagga Racist "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Students from Charles Sturt University have been accused of participating in a racist and grotesque event held at the Black Swan Hotel in Wagga Wagga on Thursday evening, which included five individuals dressing up as members of the Ku Klux Klan and a sixth member dressing up in blackface as a cotton picker.

The photo was posted on Instagram and Facebook, accompanied by the caption Very very politically incorrect. Cotton prices are unreal though so its a great time to be pickin.

A Facebook post organising the unofficial university event has also surfaced. It reads:

Calling all Motts, Notts and those in between,

As exams have just commenced we are already looking forward to the end of them and thus, the idea of the muddy duck [aka The Black Swan]two dayer has been born. It will consist of Thursday night- politically incorrect themed session kicking off at 7.30pm. Tippo will be providing the usual quality drink specials. So grab a kit that would legally get you in shit and hood right in.

The post ends by wishing student Goodluck in their upcoming exams.

The Black Swan has responded with an apology stating that the pub was made aware of a (sic) incident unbeknownst to staff.

To all that message. Thank you very much for your message.We were unaware of this behaviour happening out the back of the pub, however we have immediately dealt with this.

We have zero tolerance and do not condone this sort of behaviour.

Thanks,

Management

Members of the public were quick to push back arguing that the pub should have been aware and that based on the photos, the individual appeared to have been served alcohol.

In a second photo also believed to involve Charles Sturt University students, three individuals can be seen dressed as...

02:03

Self Defence. Possessing any object specifically for the purpose of self-defence, lethal or non-lethal, is a criminal offence in Australia. "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"




Possessing any object specifically for the purpose of self-defence, lethal or non-lethal, is a criminal offence in Australia. There are many women, raped and/or murdered, who would have been liable to prosecution had they been carrying anything that might have saved them.

Home Invasions & Assaults 2018

MAY 31 2018 - 2:47PM
Teens arrested over Tahmoor home invasion.

Teen arrested over two 'frightening' attacks on women in Sydney's west
...

00:46

Community groups say no to TPP-11 at Farrer Place, Sydney, 12.30 pm today "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Media release, Friday June 15, 2018:
 
Unions, aid and development groups, health, environment and other activists are protesting at Farrer Place today outside the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties public hearing on the controversial TPP-11 trade deal being held at 1 Bligh St Sydney.
 
This inquiry and a Senate Inquiry will report on the deal before Parliament considers the implementing legislation in September. The government lacks a majority in the Senate and these groups are calling on the ALP, Greens, Centre Alliance and other cross-benchers to block the implementing legislation.
 
AFTINET Convener Dr Patricia Ranald said: The TPP-11 without the US is still a bad deal because it would increase corporate rights at the expense of peoples rights. It still includes special rights for global companies to bypass national courts and sue governments in unfair international tribunals over health, environmental and industrial laws. 
 
Andrew Dettmer, National President of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union said: The TPP-11 is bad for workers because it has very weak commitments to labour rights that are not enforceable and does not even ban the products of child and slave labour. It would allow more temporary migrant workers who are vulnerable to exploitation, without first testing whether local workers are available.
 
Lucy Manne, Head of Campaigns, Action Aid Australia said: In low income countries, the TPP-11 would put pressure on sectors like the garment industry that are dominated by women, meaning that women could face lower wages and an erosion of their rights at work. The deal could also drive the privatisation of services, like healthcare and education, that are essential for achieving gender equality.
 
Michael Whaites, Lead Organiser, NSW Nurses and Midwives Association said: The TPP-11 is bad for health services because it entrenches medicine monopolies and delays the availability of cheaper medicines. It also restricts future governments from introducing new regulation to address changing health needs and from reversing failed privatisations, like hospital privatisations. 
 
Jonathan Moyla...

00:00

June 15 #OnThisDay in #Australian #History "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

1795 -  Captain William Paterson tattled to the Home Office in London that there were now 400 settlers, with their families, on land extending 30 miles along both banks of the Hawkesbury River

1795 - Collins referred to the hostilities at the Hawkesbury as an open war between the settlers and the Darug, who carried off the ripe corn in blankets and nets. William Rowe and his son were killed at Richmond Hill. Within a few weeks five people have been killed and several wounded, Colonel Paterson advises London.
Paterson, who had led expeditions against the Hottentots at the Cape of Good Hope, despatched 60 New South Wales Corps troops from Parramatta to the Hawkesbury River. They were ordered to destroy as many as they could meet of the wood tribe (Be-dia-gal); and in the hope of striking terror, to erect gibbets in different places, whereon the bodies of all they might kill were to be hung.
In Sydney, Pemulwuy, or some of his party wounded a convict near the Brickfield Village huts.

1798 - The Norfolk, a sloop built on Norfolk Island, arrived at Port Jackson.
This may not excite you but the convicts were simply overjoyed!

1804 - The Sullivan Cove settlement wasn't happy with it's title so it changed into something more comfortable, Hobart Town.

1821 - Alexander McDonald of the Field of Mars received permission to cut 10,000 feet of cedar and employ David Anderson, William Davis, free, James Perry, T of L, and William Clarke, prisoner.

1838 - Bryant Flannigan was hanged at Sydney for the murder of John Nagle, "Big Mary" Nagle and Patrick Riley at Bunbejong, near Mudgee.

1838 - Daniel Maloney was hanged at Sydney for the murder of Thomas Mahoney at Hassan's Walls.

1838 - Dennis Haberlin (Haverden) was hanged at Sydney for robbery at the house of John and Sarah Rawles and the attempted rape of Sarah Rawles, at Woodford Bay, Longueville.

1838 - Thomas Ribbands was hanged at Sydney for putting in fear and burglary from the house of Ann Jones, at Taree. Ann's husband John had been stabbed to death by one of their servants, Edward Tufts, earlier that year.

1839 - NSW was getting too big for it's boots so it pushed the boundaries out to include "portions of NZ that The Crown might acquire". So shove over and give us room to stick our aching feet in your hot springs.

1843 - The first elections for the NSW Legislative Council were held.

1845 - The Mitchell River, in QLD discovered explorer Ludwig Leichhardt.

1862 - 150 years ago saw the largest gold robbery in Oz history when that gang of naughty lads Frank Gardiner, Ben Hall, Johnny Gilbert and Dan Charters held up the Lachlan Gold Escort at Eugowra Rocks.

1874 - Brisvegas's first 'permanent'...

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Thursday, 14 June

22:44

How Singapore, Astana and St. Petersburg view a new world order "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Key economic forums in cities across Eurasia point the way to new power structures rising to challenge Western dominance Ahead of the crucial Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Qingdao this coming weekend, three other recent events have offered clues on how the new world order is coming about. The Astana Economic Forum in Kazakhstan centered on how mega-partnerships are changing world trade. Participants included the president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Jin Liqun; Andrew Belyaninov from the Eurasian Development Bank; former Italian Prime Minister and president of the EU Commission Romano Prodi; deputy director-general of the WTO Alan Wolff; and Glenn Diesen from the University of Western Sydney. Diesen, a Norwegian who studied in Holland and teaches in Australia, is the author of a must-read book, Russia's Geoeconomic Strategy for a Greater Eurasia, in which he analyzes in excruciating detail how Moscow is planning "to manage the continent from the heartland by enhancing collective autonomy and influence, and thus evict US hegemony directed from the periphery." In parallel, as Diesen argues, Moscow aims "to ensure the sustainability of an integrated Eurasia by establishing a balance of power or 'balance of dependence' to prevent the continent from being dominated by one power, with China being the most plausible candidate." In a nutshell; this New Great Game installment revolves around "Russia's strategy to enhance its bargaining power with the West by pivoting to the East."

19:47

MACKAY Ballistic knife and haul of ice allegedly uncovered "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

MACKAY June 14, 2018 at 05:18AM ,

Ballistic knife and haul of ice allegedly uncovered

June 14, 2018 at 05:18AM ,

Gardiner faced Mackay Magistrates Court on both Monday and Tuesday for mention, facing three charges. In addition to the ballistic knife (a Category

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19:32

Australian High Court rules man can sue Google for defamation over search results "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

An Australian man who alleges Google defamed him on Wednesday won a court battle to sue the search engine giant. Milorad "Michael" Trkulja was shot in the back in 2004 in a restaurant in Melbourne, Australia's second largest city. The Australian High Court unanimously ruled in favor of Trkulja, supporting his allegation that a Google search of his name could indicate to an ordinary person he was "somehow associated with the Melbourne criminal underworld." Trkulja had successfully argued in the Victoria state Supreme Court in 2012 that Google defamed him by publishing photos of him linked to hardened criminals of Melbourne's underworld.

18:00

Qantas Los Angeles to Melbourne flight sent into 10-second nosedive due to vortex caused by another aircraft "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Passengers have described the terrifying moment a vortex sent their Qantas flight into a 10-second "nosedive." Hundreds of horrified travelers held hands believing they were about to die as the aircraft suddenly dropped over the Pacific Ocean on Sunday. The dramatic ordeal afflicting passengers on the QF94 from Los Angeles to Melbourne is understood to have been caused by the vortex, or "wake turbulence" caused by another aircraft which took off just two minutes earlier. QF94 passenger Janelle Wilson told The Australian the "three-quarters-full" plane suddenly entered a "free fall nosedive ... a direct decline towards the ocean" for about 10 seconds. "It was between 1 and two hours after we left LA and all of a sudden the plane went through a violent turbulence and then completely up-ended and we were nosediving," Wilson told the newspaper yesterday.

06:17

Media Release: Tarkine Conservationists Welcome Prime Minister to Burnie "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Both Bob Brown Foundation and Save the Tarkine are calling on the Prime Minister to find the courage to stand up to Braddon Candidate Brett Whiteley and Premier Hodgman, and renew his commitment to World Heritage protection of the Tarkine. Conservationists held banners calling for protection of the Tarkine and greet Prime Minister Turnbull as he arrived at Burnie-Wynyard Airport this morning.

 

 

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Wednesday, 13 June

20:45

Democracy dies in darkness "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

On watering down firearm laws Mr Browne, spokesperson for Gun Control Australia stated: The Premier didnt bother telling the Tasmanian community he intended on watering down gun laws because according to him, it was one of 200 policies not published on the Liberal Partys website. Is he seriously suggesting he was unaware of the communitys deep concern for tight gun laws? This is secrecy and manipulation at worst, or a completely out of touch Premier, at best As Tasmanians, we get to live in one of the best democratic systems in the world. However, democracy, in these days of darkness, is fragile. We are watching major democratic institutions start to crumble. Tasmania can be a shining light to the world as a place of equality, health and happiness but only if it is a functional democracy Examiner: What the Liberals promised during Tasmanias election in 2018 Sophie Underwood, PMAT, FAN: Chinese celebrate Cambria Green before Council deliberations what do they know? Revelations the Chinese backers of a mega-development on Tasmanias idyllic East Coast celebrated its progress three days before a Glamorgan-Spring Bay Council (GSBC) meeting approved a request to change the planning scheme raises serious questions about the processes of the Council. It has also been revealed, that despite its massive scale, councilors only had knowledge of the request four days before the meeting

20:30

The human footprint ... Its bad on all accounts ... "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Regardless of what ethnic background we come from there is one consistent belief amongst us all, and that is there are too many of us on the planet now.  Human over-population, dwindling natural resources and increasing climate change impacts are marginalising all living things on Earth. So how long will it be before this unsustainable lifestyle we have created finally collapses ?

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Tuesday, 12 June

22:45

French Bulldogs, Faberge and the Romanov Family "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Part 1: The breeding of French bulldogs at the start of the 20th century LEntente Cordiale. (Sir) John Lavery (1856-1941). This portrait is believed to be of Violet Manners, Marchioness of Granby and later Duchess of Rutland, with her English-bred, rose or drop-eared bulldog. The painting was purchased by the Manchester Art Gallery from Thomas Agnew and Sons at their Independent British Art Exhibition of 1906. The Entente Cordiale was an agreement signed on the 8th April 1904 between Britain and France in an effort to improve Anglo-French relations. (Illustration courtesy of the Manchester Art Gallery)

22:40

Tasmanian Budget 2018: Winners and losers "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Its a post-election budget for a second-term Government with few surprises. Health is a winner, but anyone looking for a rental property is out of luck

22:37

Liberals silly complaint ... "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

A story in todays (Wednesdays) Mercury covering Braddon Liberal candidate Brett Whiteleys complaints about global retailer Patagonias film on the Tarkine went without comment from the Bob Brown Foundation. However, in reply, Bob Brown says the Liberals Whiteley is a product of last century thinking who doesnt know the Tarkine and has his facts wrong

22:34

Shared statement from peak bodies relating to short stay accommodation "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

In the absence of comprehensive data every decision made is guess work.  We need a robust evidence base underlying policy and resourcing responses and time has run out on waiting for it, said TasCOSS CEO, Kym Goodes

22:30

Ombudsman agrees to new Centrelink investigation "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

The Independent Member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie, will call on the Federal Government to shut down the disastrous Centrelink robo-debt program once and for all, after the Commonwealth Ombudsman agreed to his request to investigate it again in light of revelations from a whistleblower EARLIER on Tasmanian Times ...

08:51

Hodgman's Tarkine "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Bob Brown says the difference between his and Premier Hodgmans helicopters over the Tarkine is that the Premiers helicopters drop napalm.

He is in the job-losing business of firebombing forests after he logs them whereas I am in the job-gaining business of protecting the forests and their wildlife. I offer him an easy bargain - give the Tarkine World Heritage status and I will stay grounded.

01:42

Last Dance ... "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Click through to the site to view the cartoon.

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Monday, 11 June

22:37

Green Policy ... "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

During the live election results coverage from the Hobart tally room at the last Tasmanian election, Greens Senator Nick McKim said that, the poor result of Green votes was more or less expected and due to the fact that the Greens had no major environmental issues in progress at the moment

22:15

Barnaby ... "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Dear God, I am a true believer and regularly attend Your house where I pray for the furtherance of Your wishes for humanity and put $5 into the collection box. I also strongly believe in family values, have a beautiful wife who has always supported me and four children

22:00

Abbotts desire for a 90d tilt to the right stumbles along "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Some might remember when Alan Jones was gulled by call to his radio program claiming Australia had taken a 5d tilt to the left. The call was a practical joke but Jones fell for it and railed against it until he was told it was a joke

03:16

Christine Milne AO "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Fellow environmentalist and former Greens politician, Bob Brown, has congratulated Christine Milne on her award as Officer of the Order of Australia.

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Saturday, 09 June

22:45

An energy policy for Tasmania and all the things that should matter ... "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

When Peter McGlone asked me to prepare an article summarising the various factors that should be fed into a comprehensive and rigorous energy policy framework, I baulked. For this is never how it is done in Tasmania. Energy policy, more than any other area of policy making, will absolutely define humanitys collective future. What we do energy-wise has profound implications wherever we care to look: climate change, social inclusion, wilderness harm, traffic congestion, air pollution, poverty, health, business profitability, the state economy, energy security, our trade balance ... you name it

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Friday, 08 June

22:35

Letter on Climate Change ... "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Below is a copy of an email sent to a senior worker from Mr Shortens Office met at a Town Hall type meeting on Monday 4th June 2018. Rather than give a political talk Mr Shorten responded to questions from the audience on a range of matters. The LNP has no policy on climate change, Direct Action has proven to be shambolic as anticipated by Turnbull prior to becoming Prime Minister Peter Whish-Wilson: Only a sociopath would ignore the imminent Antarctic ice sheet collapse and keep backing fossil fuel

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Thursday, 07 June

14:49

Not-A-Poll: Worst Opposition Leader Of The Past 45 Years: Round 1 "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

For comments on the Braddon poll see Braddon guide.


Admin note: apologies for delays in comment clearing as I am not currently receiving notification emails for comments - this is a global Blogger issue which will hopefully be fixed soon. Also I have had a report that at least one reader can see the old Not-A-Polls but not the new ones.  If anyone else is getting exactly this problem please report it at k_bonham@tassie.net.au , preferably with browser detail + whether you are using a mobile phone.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Following on from a long-running Not-A-Poll series in which Gough Whitlam was this site's pick for the best Prime Minister of the Last 45 Years, Worst Prime Minister only needed a single round for the knockout.


The left-wing skew of this site's reader-base was again apparent, but the result leaves little room for doubt that Tony Abbott would have won the thing anyway.  He finished almost fifty points ahead of John Howard, a result that barely moved through the time the Not-A-Poll was running. Even with the left-wing skew, Howard's second place might be surprising to those who are accustomed to seeing him rate highly but there is an argument for it out there.  Kevin Rudd eventually managed to beat Julia Gillard among the ALP contenders, while the very miserly totals for Paul Keating and Bob Hawke are interesting.  Keating was reviled as PM during his tenure (not only by the right but by a fair slab of the left as well) but nobody much hates him anymore.

Worst Opposition Leader

I'm now starting a Worst Opposition Leader series that will run for an unknown number of months.  The rules are:

* I have split the leaders into two groups - one including those who at some stage were Prime Minister and one including those who have not yet been PM.  The reason for this is to find out something interesting even if views of leaders' qualities as PM colour opinions of their role as Opposition Leader.

* Onc...

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Wednesday, 06 June

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Monday, 04 June

07:11

Poll Roundup: Unwanted Records On Both Sides "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

2PP Aggregate: 52.3 to Labor (last-election preferences) 
51.8 with One Nation adjustment 
Coalition has improved 1.2 points in last eight weeks and now in best position since late 2016
However Labor would still almost certainly win election "held now"

It's been a little while since the last federal poll roundup (highlighting the major issue of Newspoll preferencing changes); I meant to do one in Budget week but was simply too busy with other things.  In the last five weeks the Turnbull government has kept the modest improvements in national polling that it made during April, but there has not been clear evidence of anything more.  Despite a lot of media excitement about the possibility of a quick election off the back of some possible success in the Super Saturday by-elections on July 28, we are so far not seeing anything in aggregated polling to get so excited about.

The recent national polls have been:

* Two Newspolls with headline figures of 51-49 then 52-48 to Labor.  As the previous article notes there has now been official confirmation that Newspoll is using a preference distribution for One Nation that is derived from recent state elections.  My aggregate's headline figure uses last-election preferences, and on that basis I aggregated these at 52.1 and 52.9 to Labor respectively.  The 51-49, as with the previous 51-49, was off primaries that would have normally come out to 52.4 by last-election preferences, but the fact that the published 2PP was 51 again suggested something a bit closer.  (An alternative view is that Newspoll might have changed methods twice, but we can't conclude that reliably off just two polls if so.  Also, this week's difference between the two methods was "only" 0.9).



* A ReachTEL at the start of May (52-48 to Labor by respondent preferences; I got 52.7 by last-election preferences off the primaries)

* An Ipsos in Budget week, 54-46 to Labor by batched last-election preferences (aggregated at the same).  Those who wanted to saw this as a tonic for the 51-49 Newspoll of the same week, but it's very clear which one was more outlying on a primary vote basis.

* A three-week run from Essential of 53-52-51 for Labor, all of which I aggregated at pretty close to face value.

Last week's Essential had the all-important (according to some) 4 in front of the Coalition primary, the first poll by anyone to do so since October 2016, with the exception of one of the briefly resurfacing Morgan Face-to-Faces back in March.

The Newspoll marked the 33rd consecutive 2PP loss for the Coalition under Malco...

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Friday, 01 June

14:42

Legislative Council 2018: Hobart and Prosser Live And Postcount "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Hobart: CALLED (7:15) Rob Valentine (IND) retain
Prosser: Howlett (Lib) defeated Lambert (ALP) by 887 votes after exclusion of Mav (IND).

Welcome to my live coverage thread for the 2018 Legislative Council elections for Hobart and Prosser.  After the craziest week in the Lower House in decades, we now come to the voting for two Legislative Council seats - Hobart, where Rob Valentine faces his first defence and Prosser, a new seat created by a redistribution.  The left currently has the numbers in the Legislative Council, care of four Labor MLCs and four left-wing independents, and that's not changing unless the Liberals can pull off a big upset in Hobart.  Indeed, should Prosser go badly for them, the balance will become even worse for the Hodgman government.  By the way, should a party-endorsed candidate win either seat then the party representation will reach a new all-time high (see the chart at Poll Bludger to see how the parties ebbed and flowed in the last several years.)

Comments will follow below the dotted line, scrolling from the earliest upwards. All the seats will be covered together.  I'm leaving this bit of text at the top to try to prevent colours from the heading running into the main text.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Preference Throw

5:56 Looks like the final margin is 8776-7889 (52.7%:47.3% of non-exhaust).  Lambert made a small gain on Mav's preferences but nowhere near enough.

It was never that clear what to expect from this new seat and the Liberals would have gladly taken a win by any margin.  In the end it's a fairly close result but the preferences have done basically nothing from the primary standings, a big contrast to Huon 2014.  So the Government has its first LegCo gain since taking office in 2014 and party representation in the Legislative Council reaches an all-time high.

5:47 Report from a Liberal source that Howlett has won.

4:24 Mav's out!  Howlett leads Lambert by 97...

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Wednesday, 30 May

08:39

Media Release: Conservationist arrested in Tasmanias Tarkine defending rainforests from logging "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

A conservationist has been arrested today for defending Tarkine rainforest from logging. The woman, who spent the day in a tree sit, has been taken to Smithton Police station.

Citizens stalled the logging in Australias largest temperate rainforest today in an urgent plea to the State and Federal Government. Rainforest logging in the Tarkine needs to cease and protection of takayna / Tarkine in a World Heritage listed National Park, Bob Brown Foundations Jenny Weber said.

 

 

04:43

Media Release: Australian Politicians Have Blood On Their Hands. "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Australias Coalition and Labor leaders have the blood of harpooned pregnant whales on their hands after another slaughter of defenceless Australian minke whales by illegal Japanese killers, Bob Brown said in Hobart today.

01:45

More data Tasmanian and SA state elections added "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Ive just added two more datasets to the Tally Room data repository.

These datasets cover the results of the recent Tasmanian and South Australian state elections, including candidate lists, booth lists, and voting figures at the booth and seat level:

The only thing I am missing is South Australian upper house voting figures at the booth level and at the electorate level. Ill add those when I can track them down.

This means I now have datasets published for every state and territory election since 2013, although I am also yet to go back and add the two-candidate-preferred votes by booth for the 2017 Queensland state election.

Im prioritising work on the podcast, but I will continue to publish more datasets when I get time, including the 2016 Brisbane City Council election results and some older Queensland figures.

01:41

Media Release: 350-year-old Celery Top Pine Was Logged In Tarkine: Tree Sit Protest Continues In Rainforests. "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Bob Brown Foundation is calling for an immediate end to logging in Tasmanias Tarkine rainforests after independently and scientifically dating a logged celery top pine from the same area at 350 years old. A cross-section of the pine is on display at the foundation office.

 

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Tuesday, 29 May

16:39

EMRS: No Real Change Since Election "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

EMRS: Liberal 47 (-3.2 from election), Labor 30 (-2.8), Green 14 (+3.7) Ind/Other 8 (+1.2)
Interpretation: Liberal 49.5 (-0.7) Labor 31.5 (-1.3) Green 11 (+0.7) Ind/Other 8
Outcome if election "held now" based on this poll: Liberal majority government (c. 13-9-3)
However it is unlikely in practice Greens would be in a position to regain Bass so quickly.
Poll provides no evidence that any party's support has changed.

The December 2017 EMRS poll, taken three months out from the 2018 state election, proved to be completely unpredictive of the outcome.  It had a 17% swing against the Government (the actual swing in the end was 1%), a 3.2% swing to the Greens (the actual swing was 3.5% against) and an 8% vote for the Jacqui Lambie Network (who in the end got 3.2).  If a poll taken three months out is predictively worse than useless, what can we say of one taken two months into an expected four-year term?



Predictively, nothing at all.  However, the May 2018 poll still does provide some data we can consider.  Just not as much as it used to do, because EMRS have changed the report format.  The new presentation provides pretty graphs in the PDF but no longer includes the old "Table 2" (a breakdown including "undecided" voters), and the number of undecided voters isn't stated in the new report anywhere.  Other Australian pollsters don't generally provide tables including "undecided" either (except for ReachTEL who define the term differently to everyone else) but the percentage of undecided respondents should be published.

What did we learn about EMRS polling at this state election?  The previous four elections EMRS polled at all featured Labor governments and this one featured a Liberal government.  EMRS had been especially prone to underestimate Labor support in the past, but in this case underestimated Liberal support even in its final poll (by 4 points, outside the poll's claimed "margin of error", but this could have been down to voting intention changes over the last week).

What we've seen suggests that if there was a specifically anti-Labor house effect in EMRS polling, it isn't there anymore, but it could be that EMRS polling underestimates the government of the day (whoever it is).  One thing that did follow the script was that EMRS overestimated the Green vote (this time by 1.7 points), as it did in 2006 (by 3.4 points), 2010 (by 6.4 points after redistributing undecided), 2014 (by 3.2 points, albeit a month out).  The pattern here seems to be that the poll is prone to exceed the Green vote by more when the Green vote is high and less when the Green vote is low.  My approach to modelling the Green vote in EMRS this te...

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Sunday, 27 May

03:42

Friends of FM June 2018 "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

RADIO MUSEUM A MUST SEE

Have you seen City Park Radios very own Radio Museum lately? If not, you should.

There is an amazing collection of nearly 80 pieces on display. The earliest examples are from around 1920, including an incredible Edison model C-250 that dates from 1916. This fascinating phonogram played the latest in recording technology a flat phonographic shellac disc. Only the very wealthy couldve afforded one of these. There are several other old record players as well as radios of every type, size and description. There are radios that received short wave, medium wave and long wave, and even amateur broadcasts. It really is a lesson in the history of the Golden Age of Radio.

Our volunteer museum curators do such a great job in looking after the exhibits and welcoming visitors from all over the world the visitors book has pages of comments from Europeans, Chinese, Japanese, Russians, Brazilians, South Africans people from every corner of the earth. Young people are amazed at the antiquated nature of the pieces, some even term them as retro. Conversely, elderly folk warmly remember listening to these radios in their youth, as it wouldve been the only form of entertainment in the home. Oh I used to have one of those is a common response.

The museum always welcomes donations, so if you have found an interesting old radio in your garage, or your parents garage, get in touch with the CPR Radio Museum. You will find it in the City Park cottage near the park entrance in Tamar Street, and opening hours are 10am til 2pm, Monday to Friday.

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MESSAGE FROM THE MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE

The Committee would like to remind you of our Annual General Meeting on 25th August, 2018. Members are encouraged to consider contributing to the running of our station and nominate for the new Committee. Notices will go out in July and nominations must be received a week prior to the AGM.

MEMBERSHIP RENEWAL (30th......

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Thursday, 24 May

02:00

New datasets NSW councils and Tasmanian upper house "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Ive got a couple of new datasets now up on the website for you to use.

Ive now published the complete dataset from the 2017 NSW council election, including the list of candidates, the list of booths (including latitude/longitude) and the voting figures at the ward level and at the polling place level. Ive also included mayoral results at the council and polling place level.

Ive also expanded the Tasmanian Legislative Council dataset to cover the 2017 and 2018 elections (including last years Pembroke by-election). This dataset now covers twelve years of elections, including candidate and booth lists, and vote data at the booth level.

You can check out the whole data repository here.

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Wednesday, 23 May

02:11

NSW government moves to end random sampling in council elections "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Last year I testified before the NSW state Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) about the issue of random sampling in NSW local government elections. You can read my submission, the transcript of the hearing, and the committees report.

TLDR: The random sampling system used to conduct NSW council elections is broken. The state government has accepted some great recommendations from the state JSCEM to fix this problem, and make some other improvements to instil more faith in our electronic counting systems, at least in NSW.

When a candidate is elected with a surplus in a single transferable vote election (such as elections to the Senate, all mainland upper houses, the ACT assembly and the Tasmanian lower house, as well as many councils), a proportion of their votes should flow on as preferences.

For most Australian elections, this is done through the use of a transfer value. All of the votes are passed on, but at a fractional value. So if you have 100,000 votes and the quota is 80,000, all 100,000 votes are passed on at 0.2 of a vote each.

This works pretty well, but was much harder to do back when counting was done by hand.

So in some systems, we used to only pass on some of the votes at their full value, and these ballots were selected randomly. So in the above example, 80,000 of those votes would stay with the elected candidate and the remaining 20,000 would be passed on at full value even though those voters have already been able to have their say.

This system has a number of problems. Its very difficult to randomise using a computer system (its impossible to do it perfectly) and it creates significant complications in making the computer code to run the count. It also is not replicable. A second recount could produce a different outcome.

This random sampling system is still used for the NSW Legislative Council (which would require a constitutional referendum to change) and for NSW local government (which could be changed with simple legislation).

The problems are worst for local councils with smaller numbers of votes being cast, larger fields of candidates and votes less likely to follow organised party tickets. There are numerous examples of council elections where the most likely outcome did not happen thanks to a biased sample, and a handful...

Tuesday, 22 May

02:10

Media Release: Proposed Malaysia Probes Tasmania Link "IndyWatch Feed Allstate"

Bob Brown backs Malaysian inquiry into Abetz-backed Sarawak logging.

Tasmanias Bob Brown Foundation is supporting the Swiss-based Bruno Manser Funds call for Sarawaks former premier and political godfather Abdul Taib Mahmud to be a focus of the anti-corruption inquiry after Malaysias stunning change of government. Sarawak is a state of Malaysia.

 

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